Intervention annulée et reportée au second semestre
The standard representation of beliefs in decision theory and much of formal epistemology, by probability measures, is incapable of representing an agent's confidence in his beliefs. However, as shall be argued in this talk, the agent's confidence in his beliefs plays, and should play, an central role in many of the most difficult decisions which we find ourselves faced with - including some that rely on (at times controversial) scientific expertise. The aim of this talk is to formulate a representation of agents' doxastic states and a (choice-theoretically grounded) theory of decision which recognises and incorporates confidence in belief. Time-permitting, some consequences for decision making in the face of radical uncertainty, and in particular the debate surrounding the Precautionary Principle, will be discussed.